Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s bid to become the African Union Commission’s (AUC) Chairperson ended in disappointment as he was eliminated in the sixth round of voting. The election, held on February 15, 2025, saw Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf emerge victorious after a gruelling seven-round voting process where she got 33 votes out of 49, which is a 2/3 of all votes cast.
Ruto’s mistakes played a crucial role in Raila Odinga’s loss in the African Union Chairperson elections, leading to his unexpected elimination. Here are the factors that contributed to Raila’s loss:
1. Francophone Influence
Raila faced stiff competition from Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, a French-speaking candidate. Francophone countries traditionally vote as a bloc, making it difficult for non-French-speaking candidates to secure their support. This influence played a significant role in the election dynamics, with Youssouf gaining momentum after the elimination of Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato.
2. Geopolitical and Religious Factors
Kenya’s recent foreign policy decisions, particularly its alignment with Israel during the Gaza conflict, did not sit well with many African nations. This stance created a liability for President William Ruto, who supported Raila’s campaign. The large Muslim population in Africa also favored Youssouf, a French-speaking Muslim candidate, over Raila.
3. Support from Regional Blocs
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) threw its weight behind Djibouti, further complicating Raila’s chances. The split in Anglophone votes and the lack of unanimous support from East African Community (EAC) neighbors like Tanzania, Uganda, and Burundi also hindered Raila’s campaign.
4. Campaign Strategy and Execution
Despite a strong start, Raila’s campaign faced challenges in maintaining momentum. Although he garnered early support from at least 21 countries, his campaign struggled to secure the necessary majority in subsequent rounds. The final blow came in the sixth round when Youssouf took the lead with 26 votes, while Raila managed only.
5. Economic and Diplomatic Challenges
Critics lambasted the opulence of the Kenyan delegation sent to Addis Ababa, highlighting Kenya’s economic struggles. This perception may have affected Raila’s appeal to some African leaders who were concerned about financial commitments to the AU.
Raila’s loss marks the second time Kenya has failed to secure the AUC Chairperson position, following a similar defeat of Amina Mohamed in 2017. Despite the setback, Raila’s campaign showcased Kenya’s determination to play a leading role in African politics.
